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Evidence

Digital evidence chain

Six chain curves describe one country and one industry along the life chain: product, sales, customer, operations, promotion and management. Each curve is a series of dated readings. On its own a curve is not evidence, so every pair of curves in this set is cross-checked against the others.

Where these numbers come from — read this first This page is not built on data we collected ourselves. The readings are an imported open dataset: the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) — BACI trade records (HS92 revision) plus RCA and ECI complexity indicators — imported on 2026-09-13. We do not collect foreign trade statistics. What is ours is the layer on top: how the six chains are built from those raw inputs (chain = 3 + 5 × percentile, ranked against every country with the same industry and year) and the cross-verification below. So read the curves as a re-reading of public trade data, not as our own measurements.
One reading is not evidenceA number without a date is a claim, not a fact. Every figure on this page carries the year it was recorded.
A curve needs three datesA chain has to be read at least three times before a line means anything. Chains with fewer readings are shown as empty, never filled in with a guess.
Two curves must agreeA chain pair becomes evidence when both chains move in the same direction over the same years. That is what confirmed means here - and what divergent warns about.

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Cross-verification, pair by pair

A step is comparable when both chains have a reading in one year and the next. The step agrees when both moved the same way - up, down or flat. The share of agreeing steps decides the verdict: confirmed at 70% and above, pending from 40% to 70%, and divergent below 40%. Pairs with no shared year are no-overlap. Only direction is compared, never the size of the move, because the six chains are not measured on the same scale.