This life, each stage has things to do and distances that can be calculated.
This isn't your problem; it's a change in structure.
It's not 'I can't do it anymore,' but 'I've been doing the same job for ten years, and I've been replaced by cheaper people and tools'.
Verification Signals (count as valid if two or more are met):
· Income has stagnated or decreased for ≥2 years
· Core work can be replaced by new people and tools
· No transferable career assets
Career Assets
This stage requires understanding 'increasing institutional composition': capital is increasingly invested in machines and technology, relatively less in people. The manifestation is — the same work can be done by tools and new people, and your experience premium is flattened.
So the countermeasure is not 'work harder,' but:
① Move to places where the institutional composition hasn't increased yet
② Become a tool user, not a person replaced by tools
③ Turn experience into 'something others can't buy': judgment, relationships, responsibility
Have the ability to not be afraid of unemployment
Don't have to rely on overtime to prove value
Can support this family
Definition
Substitutability · Percentage of judgment work · Number of external opportunities
How to Calculate
Question: How long will it take for a new person and AI to take over my job; how many times a year do external opportunities come to me
Healthy Range
Takeover needs >6 months · Judgment ≥60% · Annual external opportunities ≥2 times
Working overtime to prove yourself — The more you prove, the more quantifiable you are
Sticking to the original industry — This is a structural change across the entire industry
Quitting your job to start a business — No verification, no capital
Blaming the problem on yourself — This is a structural issue
Only submitting resumes — This channel is least friendly to those over 35
First figure out: How long can I last
List which parts of my job can be replaced and which cannot
Amplify the non-replaceable parts (judgment/relationships/responsibility)
Take the first external client or consulting order with my experience
If a transformation is necessary, do it in small steps, don't bet everything at once