180 clicks, 0 sign-ups — what does that look like as a curve?

What this is

One of our published methods, written in plain language: what it can do, when to use it, what goes in and what comes out.

Why it matters

Most methods are published as papers or code. This one is written so you can decide whether it fits your problem before you invest time in it.

How to use it

Read the page top to bottom. If it matches your question, use the online tool - or subscribe and run it on your own data.

What you get

A clear answer on what the method does and does not do, plus a live curve from our own demand series. Free to read.

Free to readOnline tools from $5 per runSee it →

Demand curve read by this method — A live reading from our own demand series - the shape of the signal this method works on. 570 industries are tracked daily; this is one of them.

Data base: InfoGap own records - 391 Chinese cities x 8 dimensions, 213,208 city-industry rows, 40,499 POIs (central / lifechain, 2026-10-08).

InfoGap Algorithm Handbook · one algorithm per page · no jargon · formal name: Water flow algorithm

1In one line: what it does

Enter campaign data and it draws a round-by-round curve, then gives a total headcount and one line on health.

2When to use it

It helps in these three situations:

You put a wave of money into a campaign and you have the data in hand: 180 people came, and after that nothing. The report does not show where the problem is.

What people usually do: read the report — every number is right, it is just that nobody comes.

Use it: enter the numbers and it draws a round-by-round curve and gives "health grade D" — putting "every number is right but nothing happened" into plain words.

You have to report this campaign's results upwards.

What people usually do: paste a screenshot of the click count.

Use it: total reach plus that single health letter is easier to understand than a screenshot.

You are torn over "should I run another round of the campaign".

What people usually do: look at how much the last round cost.

Use it: look at how much is left after the second round — only if a lot is left is another round worth running.

3What goes in · what comes out

Inputs (this is the exact set used for the real run)

· How many people came at the start: 180
· How many people each person pulls in on average: 0.23
· Of the people pulled in, how many actually stay: 0.0013
· How much drops off each round: 0.35

What comes out

These numbers came out of it on the spot, with not one character changed:

Round 1: 180 people (180 cumulative)
Round 2: 14.35 people (194.35 cumulative)
Round 3: 1.13 people (195.48 cumulative)
Round 4: 0.09 people (195.57 cumulative)
Total people reached: 195.6
The round with the most people: round 1 (180 people)
Extra value that word of mouth can bring: 2.723
Health: 39.9 points — grade D

—— enter "each person pulls in 2.5, share that stays 0.2" ——
Total reach 205.3, health 50.1 points, still grade D

How to read it: Look at the shape of the curve: highest in round 1 and falling all the way down means it is one-off; if the later rounds still hold up, people really are bringing people for you. Health here is only 39.9 points (grade D), which lines up with "180 clicks, 0 sign-ups". Note: enter a better set of numbers and health only rises from 39.9 to 50.1, still grade D — the scoring itself is strict, so do not stare at the letter alone, look at the shape of the curve.

📈One chart: cumulative reach is almost a flat line

Four rounds together reach only 15 more people — that is the direct evidence that the spread never took off.

4How to use it

There is no public calculator for this yet — the method above is the whole procedure, and on this site the inputs have to be keyed in by hand.

The inputs are four items: how many people start, how many each person pulls in, the share that stays, and how much drops off each round. There is no web form yet, so these four numbers have to be filled in by hand.

Get the four numbers ready: starting headcount, people pulled in per person, share that stays, drop-off per round
Put the four numbers through the method above
Read the shape of the curve, the total reach and the health grade
To test another scenario, run it again with a new set of four numbers and compare the two curves

5Who it is for

People who have to report campaign results upwards; people reviewing whether a campaign was worth the money; people about to run another round who want to see the elasticity first.

6Common questions

Q: How is this different from the "how many are left round by round" one?

A: It works out the same thing. This one adds two numbers (total reach, health grade); that one is simpler. Using both together means working it out twice — pick one and stop.

Q: Is health grade D very bad?

A: It is on the low side. But note that its scoring is strict: tune every item up and it still only reaches 50 points. So reading the trend is more useful than reading the letter.

Q: Why does the second round look so small?

A: Because "0.23 people per person" is itself below 1, and on top of that part of it drops off every round, so the second round naturally leaves only a dozen or so people.

7Related algorithms

decay · how many are left round after round k-factor · one number to see whether it spreads by itself funnel-evaluate · which layer it gets stuck at ← Back to the Algorithm Handbook Handbook index

✓Why this scenario exists (where the content comes from)

This scenario comes from the records of the "algorithm meets demand" round: the overseas Chinese community cold start need was run against several algorithms, and this one was judged "useful" because "per-round headcount + total reach 195.6 + word-of-mouth value 2.723 + health grade D. It turns “$700 bought 180 clicks and 0 sign-ups” into a spread curve".

The inputs and outputs above were obtained by re-running the numbers in the record: 180 people / 0.23 pulled in per person / 0.0013 staying / 0.35 drop-off per round → total reach 195.6, health 39.9 points grade D.

Source: the overseas scouting report (ads-scout-20260921.html, section 5, product 4); the report's own measurement reads "$700 → 77,000 impressions, 180 clicks, 0 sign-ups". The D7 record in the matched-need ledger.