Column · two days minimum

Two days is the minimum signal

2026-10-19 · InfoGap

Why one day is not data

A single count has no comparison. It cannot distinguish a stable quantity from a spike, a floor from a ceiling, or a normal day from an unusual one. It is a photograph of something you cannot see moving.

What the second day adds

The second day gives you a direction and a magnitude, and it exposes the first day's oddities. A number that dropped by half between two consecutive days is telling you something about collection as often as about the world.

What two days still cannot tell you

Whether the direction is a trend. Two points define a line, not a pattern. A rise over two days can be the start of something or the recovery from a dip on day one.

So two days is a floor for acting, not a licence for committing. It justifies a small test, not a large investment.

The discipline

Publish the number with its date, and publish the comparison with the previous date. Never publish a figure that cannot be paired. A reader who cannot see the previous reading cannot judge whether the current one is remarkable.

Why we do it this way

Because a record with dates is checkable, and a record without dates is a claim. The date is what turns a number into evidence.

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