Every life stage has work to do and a distance that can be calculated.
Delegate bounded research and simulation; verify assumptions and own the consequences.
Bounded research and simulation can be handed over. The choice, and the decade it commits you to, cannot. The boundary is not the difficulty of the task — it is who absorbs the loss if the model is wrong.
Verification signals (two or more and the need is real):
· Every assumption in the projection is printed, not hidden
· You can re-run the same simulation with your own numbers
· A clinician, lawyer or fee-only planner confirms the interpretation
Verification cost + principal–agent cost + irreversibility
Models are cheap to build and expensive to trust. A ten-year projection is delegable only if every assumption is visible and you can change one number and re-run it yourself. If the assumptions are buried, the output is rhetoric with a number attached.
Principal–agent cost is sharpest in health: the agent reads your indicators, the clinician interprets them. Letting the first do the second is a transfer of accountability nobody agreed to.
Basis taken from the cell framework. All three must pass; a failed test is a stop, not a warning.
Can I hand <collecting and summarizing information about a career change> to an agent?
Basis: Verification cost economics
If any fails, do the search yourself and use the agent only to format your notes.
Can I hand <tracking and flagging my health checkup indicators> to an agent?
Basis: Principal-agent cost
If any fails, keep a manual spreadsheet and ask a clinician to interpret changes.
Can I hand <running family financial simulations> to an agent?
Basis: Real options / irreversibility
If any fails, use a simple spreadsheet you built yourself and verify with a fee-only planner.
A career comparison with sources, not vibes
Health numbers I can bring to an appointment
A projection whose assumptions I can argue with
What to look at
Research hours saved · assumptions listed per model · decisions reviewed with a professional
How to judge
Can you change one assumption and re-run the result yourself?
Healthy state
Every model assumptions-visible · one professional review per major decision · no self-diagnosis
Treat a projection as a forecast —— the output is arithmetic; the assumptions are the claim
Let the agent interpret your blood test —— it can flag a number, not diagnose a person
Change career because a comparison scored it highest —— the weights were chosen by someone you never met
Skip the professional because the report looked complete —— a complete-looking report is the cheapest kind to generate
Write the decision and the loss you could absorb
Ask for research and simulation with assumptions printed
Change one assumption yourself and re-run the logic
Take the output to a clinician or fee-only planner for interpretation
Decide, then own the consequence — that part is not delegable
This page does not ask for medical records or financial statements. It discusses where research ends and responsibility begins.